The Presidential Election: Does it, Will it, Can it..affect the housing market?

As a Realtor and advocate for affordable housing, there is one thing that I wake up every morning thinking about. No, it’s not how much I wish someone would make coffee for me…that’s my second thought. It’s, “How can I structure my day and negotiate my deals better today to get my buyers into a house this month?” Not because I get off on the thrill of the deal, it’s because my buyers these days are EXHAUSTED, tapped out, pushed to the edge of what is humanly reasonable, twisting themselves into financial contortions that would make any Cirq du Soleil acrobat jealous of their flexibility. I have moral rage surrounding the issue of affordability.

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On top of the burden of home buying affordability and predatory mega builders today, the powers that be keep telling us that “The economy is fine stupid, it’s totally normal that you are working three jobs to buy this house!”…we are in an election year. Now y’all know elections DON’T EVER do anything to thread the needle of solving any housing crisis, but they do affect everything else on a deeply psychological level when it comes to how we do business and thrive (or not) in our daily lives. Folks generally take a ‘wait and see what happens’ approach the year leading up to an election to make big decisions. Affordability in the housing market, well that’s its own animal.

Source: CNBC.com

The Data Explanation: “Too Much, too many, no number! I’ll buy it tomorrow maybe.”

As we all know, decisions in residential real estate can be overwhelming, especially when it comes to navigating the complex world of market data and how real estate professionals like myself valuate houses. With the presidential election just around the corner, it's no surprise that housing affordability has taken center stage. Both major party candidates have addressed the issue on the campaign trail, and it's clear that young voters are prioritizing affordable housing above all else. As they should.

Source: CNBC.com

So, what's the deal with the housing shortage?

Based on “The Numbers” it's clear that a lack of supply has been the primary driver of high home prices and worsening affordability in the US. But here's the thing: the estimates of the housing shortfall vary wildly and there is significant lag time when collecting data on a national scale, ranging from 1.5 million to 5.5 million units. That's a big range. Housing markets can and do behave drastically different when looking at averages depending on where you live. The jury is out on how much we can rely on the humans who interpret that data to tell us what might happen next, but the takeaway is clear: we absolutely need more housing to meet demand nation wide.

Source: CNBC.com

Now, let's talk about the different approaches to calculating the housing shortfall. The National Association of Home Builders and Freddie Mac rely on assumptions about long-term housing vacancy rates, while Moody's Analytics takes into account pent-up household formations. Up for Growth, a national housing member network, nets out second and vacation homes, as well as uninhabitable units, leading to their higher estimate. And the National Association of Realtors takes a different approach by comparing current levels of housing construction with historic averages.

So, what does this mean for us in New Braunfels? It means that we need to focus on increasing the supply of housing to meet the demand. And that's exactly what the Harris-Waltz campaign is proposing: incentives to promote new housing construction, including tax incentives for building starter homes, recommendations for streamlining permitting processes, and initiatives to stop predatory investing (my personal favorite thing to lament over) in single-family homes. Their goal is to facilitate the production of 3 million housing units over four years.

One thing that I am noticing in our market is the shift in the square footage size in new home builds in Central Texas. Gone are the days of massive, 5,000-square-foot mansions and good luck trying to sell one! Instead, builders are now constructing homes with smaller square footage, often in the range of 2,000-3,000 square feet. And I think this is a game-changer for families who are looking for a unique solution to the affordability crisis. Why not consider buying one of these smaller homes and converting it into a "multi-generational legacy home"? With a little creativity and some smart design, you could easily add an in-law suite or a separate living space for your adult children. And with builders now purposefully designing homes with layouts that make it easy to add or subtract bathrooms, walls, and kitchens, the possibilities are endless.

As for the Trump-Vance campaign, they've suggested reducing government regulation and curbing immigration to expand the housing supply. While I understand the desire to reduce regulation, I'm not convinced that this approach will solve the problem. In fact, it might even exacerbate the issue by limiting the number of people who can contribute to the housing market.

Action Plan: Where to Start?

It's clear that we need a multifaceted approach to building and sustaining affordable housing that encourages new construction, motivates homeowners to sell their homes, and reduces regulation. We need to incentivize local and state governments to reduce the costs associated with homebuilding, and that won’t happen on its own y’all! Get involved in your communities and vote, it’s the ONLY way. It may seem like your votes don’t matter sometimes..but they DO!

Speaking of mega mansions that would be GREAT to convert into your familie’s "Multigenerational Legacy Home”. Seriously! Think about it:

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As your REALltor and Advocate for affordable housing, I'm committed to staying on top of the latest developments and working with our local leaders to find solutions that work for our community. Let's work together to make New Braunfels a place where everyone can afford to call home y’all!

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Is the Comal County Housing Market Cooling Off?

Hey, neighbors! It's your friendly New Braunfels REALtor here, back with an update on what's happening in our neck of the woods. Let's explore the Comal County data to gain a better understanding of what's in store for home prices in our area. Specifically, let's dive into the 78130 zip code and see what the data tells us what where all dying to get a feel for, the future of home prices in Unicorn Country.

Now, if you've been following along lately, you know things have been shifting. While it’s been a strong seller's market for a while, there are signs pointing towards a potential cool down. Don't worry, this isn't necessarily a bad thing! It could mean a desperately needed more balanced market for both my buyers and sellers.

Here's the deal: The good folks behind The Reventure App, which analyzes key market indicators, predicts a *moderate decline* in home prices for 78130 over the next year. Why? Let's break it down:

Recent Comal County Property Appreciation

We've actually seen home values dip slightly by 4.7% over the past year. This suggests a softening market, and that downward trend might continue.

Days on Market: Homes are lingering a bit longer before being snatched up. At 57 days on average, it's not a drastic change, but it does indicate a shift in the balance of power.

Historical Days on Market Forecast, New Braunfels, TX

Mortgage Rates: Ah, those freaking interest rates! They're still hovering above the long-term average, keeping it a bit tougher for some buyers to jump into the market.

Inventory Levels: Here's a big one – we've got more homes for sale than usual. In fact, inventory is up a significant 38.4% compared to the average. More choices for buyers often translate to downward pressure on prices.

Historical Inventory Forecast, New Braunfels, TX

Price Cuts: More and more sellers are willing to negotiate, with a whopping 43.8% slashing their asking prices recently. This is a strong signal that sellers are adjusting to the changing market.

Historical Price Cuts Forecast, New Braunfels, TX

What does this all mean for you?

For my Buyers, this could be your chance to snag a great deal! With more inventory and motivated sellers, you might have more negotiating power.

For my Sellers: Don't panic! This isn't a crash, but it's wise to be strategic. Pricing your home competitively and showcasing it in its best light will be key.

Remember y’all, this is just a forecast, and the real estate market is constantly evolving. As your local expert and advocate, I'm here to guide you every step of the way. Whether you're looking to buy, sell, or just want to chat about the market, give me a call!

Waiting for Mortgage Rates to Drop? Surprise!! They Went Higher:

I asked AI to imagine a young man standing in front of The Federal Reserve. Not bad! I too am confused! 

Hey there! So, I was watching this fascinating video on YouTube the other day by Logan Mohtashami, and it really got me thinking about the complex world of economic data and how it impacts mortgage rates. Let me share some insights that are especially useful for first-time homebuyers and seniors looking to downsize.

The Impact of Economic Data on Mortgage Rates

Logan Mohtashami dives into how different economic indicators influence mortgage rates. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates, mortgage rates have nudged up slightly. This made me do a double take in despair…why?!! It’s due to a mix of factors he explains in detail which I shall attempt to interpret for those of us who still think sitting in the back of the class makes us cool.

Key Economic Indicators

Mohtashami explaines that metrics such as jobless claims and industrial production offer a glimpse into the state of the economy. For instance, a robust labor market may drive up mortgage rates, as investors anticipate economic expansion. Conversely, when the labor market starts to weaken and unemployment rises significantly, the Federal Reserve, in a frantic attempt to stabilize the economy, resorts to imposing elevated interest rates—an emergency measure intended to guard against being overwhelmed by the surging waves of uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve’s Role

The Fed’s decisions are crucial, aiming to boost the economy by lowering borrowing costs. However, mortgage rates don’t always follow suit due to other market dynamics. Sometimes, the Fed’s actions don’t align with market expectations AT ALL, causing major discrepancies and economic data analysts behind closed doors in an assumed crash protection mode heads between knees. ( Ugh. Don’t get me started about The Fed, I’m trying to keep my blood pressure down.)

Understanding “Spreads” and Their Influence

A critical aspect that affects mortgage rates is the ‘spread’ between financial instruments like the 10-year yield and mortgage rates. Favorable spreads can lower mortgage rates, yet other economic data can offset this advantage. Sure! I'll explain spreads and mortgage rate calculators in a simpler way:

Imagine you're selling lemonade. You buy lemons for $1, but you sell your lemonade for $2. The extra $1 you charge is like a "spread." It's the extra money you make to cover your work and the risk that not everyone will buy your lemonade.

Now, let's think about mortgages (which are big loans people use to buy houses):

Banks lend money to people to buy houses. They charge a bit more interest than they have to pay to get the money themselves. This extra amount is called a "spread." The spread is like the extra $1 you charged for your lemonade. It helps the bank make money and covers the risk that some people might not pay back their loans. A mortgage rate spread calculator is a tool that helps figure out how much extra the bank is charging compared to what they could charge. This calculator takes two numbers:

• The interest rate the bank is charging for the house loan

• A special number that shows what most banks are charging

• It then finds the difference between these two numbers. This difference is the "spread."

If the spread is big, it might mean the bank is charging more than usual. If it's small, the bank might be giving a good deal! People use these calculators to check if they're getting a fair price on their house loan, kind of like checking if the lemonade price is fair at different stands. (You know how those tiny entrepreneurs can be!)

Remember y’all, just like how the price of lemonade can change based on the weather or how many lemons are available, the spread on mortgages can change too, based on what's happening in the world and the economy.

What’s Next for Mortgage Rates?

Looking forward, Mohtashami discusses potential scenarios. Strong economic data might increase rates, while weaker data or a more cautious Fed could lower them. It’s essential to stay updated on economic trends and Fed policies to anticipate changes my friends. Depending on which direction the wind blows it seems lately is how The Federal Reserve makes their decisions these days. Fortunately, I love watching weather and stay up to date.

Housing Market Dynamics

The housing market itself (it’s NOT the FED y’all) influences mortgage rates. Factors like the number of housing starts and sales data reflect economic health, impacting rates. Pro Mortgage Hacker Tip: A dip in housing starts might suggest economic slowdown, potentially lowering rates.

Seasonal Trends

Seasonal trends traditionally also affect rates. There’s often a surge in home buying at certain times, affecting rates. Being aware of these trends can help you time your buying or selling decisions for better outcomes…sometimes. I say sometimes because our housing market the past 4 years has been anything BUT conforming to tradition. My advice: Best not to rely on waiting until next Spring to put your house on the market because that’s what worked for your neighbor last year. Ask yourself, “Is there ever a good time to have a baby, really?”

Navigating Mortgage Rates: Be a Mortgage Hacker!

Yes. I said it. To make informed decisions (and be the coolest one in your friend group), keep an eye on:

Economic Indicators: Watch jobless claims and housing starts to gauge economic direction.

Federal Reserve Policies: Understand how Fed actions might affect rates.

Spreads: Favorable spreads can mean better borrowing conditions.

Seasonal Trends: Recognize patterns in home buying activity.

Now, listen up, my little mortgage hacker babies! Just like you wouldn't buy a car without test-driving a few, don't settle for the first mortgage lender you meet. Rates and packages can be as different as apples and oranges (or lemons, to stick with our theme).

BEFORE you commit to a lifetime of payments that you don’t understand but are stuck with because you don’t have a buyer’s agent rep signed since your uncle who watches too much cable news told you we (agents) are all scammers, do yourself a favor: Shop around! Interview several lenders like you're hosting a reality TV show called "America's Next Top Mortgage." It's seriously important, but it can also be seriously fun because you will learn so much about how these operators work.

Need help finding these lenders? Give your local real estate agent a call (that's me if you’re in Central Texas or want to be!). I've got a roster of lenders that pass my “look me in the eyeballs with integrity” test. Remember, the right lender could save you thousands over the life of your loan. That's a lot of start up capital you could invest in your OWN lemonade empire!

3.99% Mortgage Rates Are Back, Y’all!??

The Soaring Prices and the Reality of Affordability

The moment we all were waiting for all year finally happened this week, The Fed dropped rates 50 basis points. But wowzers, have you seen the numbers?!  The housing market is off the charts, with median home prices across the nation hitting a whopping $426,000 last month! Meanwhile, the average income in the U.S. is around $78,000. Yikes! That math doesn’t quite add up for many folks, making homeownership seem like a distant dream for some.

Frankly, it's akin to attempting to buy a luxury yacht while still saving up for an E-bike. The struggle is real! Furthermore, let's consider a comparison from our friends on the other side of the globe—there are sprawling ghost cities in China that serve as a stark reminder that aspirations to BUILD BABY BUILD don't always align with the reality of how the real estate market has been playing out. Similarly, many ambitious new master planned housing communities in the U.S. often fail to meet the needs of everyday Americans' budgets.

Government Intervention and Private Equity’s Role

Now, let’s talk about some major players in the real estate aquisition game—private equity firms. You’ve probably heard of big names like BlackRock, right? They’ve got quite a bit of power in the market, snatching up single-family homes and leaving us wondering who’s really in control. In cities like San Antonio, Tampa, and Atlanta, this influence can create challenges for regular buyers like you!

There is a lot of talk on the Hill about housing affordability in this truly nail biting Presidential race both of our candidates are proposing much needed policies on this truly underreported crisis. Politics and housing can be a tricky mix to sort through and follow. Recent efforts to shed light on home buying practices often come with caveats, leaving many of us feeling a bit lost. But don’t worry! Professionals like myself have our eyes peeled and stay informed about how these dynamics are unfolding.

Tips for Aspiring Homeowners

So, how do we navigate this wild ride toward homeownership? Start with putting one step in front of the other and say no to your next impulse buy in the check out line.

Save Smart: Ditch those daily lattes y’all and channel that cash into your home fund. Your future self will thank you!

Cook at Home: Embrace your inner chef—just don’t expect Michelin stars! While I’m not exactly the next culinary prodigy, I’ve discovered that whipping up meals for myself is a delicious form of self-love AND it doesn’t hurt my soul when I get the check. You’ll be amazed how much money you can save by committing to only eating out a couple times of month. Plus, it makes it all the more special when you do go out!

Be Patient: Navigating the housing market successfully often involves being prepared. By maintaining good credit and a healthy savings plan, you'll be in a strong position when you're ready to buy. Remember the exhausting FOMO that went on during covid lockdown? Well, SAFETY is the new FOMO y’all!

House Hunting: Ready for a little adventure? Get out there and explore the neighborhoods that catch your eye! Don’t just scroll through those Zillow listings; dive into the local scene. Chat with neighbors, visit parks, and keep an eye out for FSBO hidden gems. I have an app that can help while you’re out and about, just open it up and point at any home on your drive by’s. Homeowners expressing interest can work wonders to motivate a seller y’all! It’s all about building connections and keeping your ear to the ground!

The Emotional Weight of Real Estate

The emotional weight of real estate is a topic often skirted around, but it's a crucial aspect of the home-buying process. When we purchase a home, we're not just making a financial investment; we're also investing in our sense of identity, our memories, and our dreams. The perfect home is often a reflection of our personality, values, and lifestyle, and the search for it can be a deeply personal and emotional journey. From the moment we step inside a property, we're drawn to its character, its charm, and its potential to become a sanctuary for our loved ones. The memories we make within its walls, the laughter and tears, the milestones and celebrations – all of these moments are woven into the fabric of our emotional connection to our homes. It's okay (and downright essential) to acknowledge the emotional weight of real estate and approach the process with sensitivity, understanding, and patience for yourself and the process. By doing so, we can find a home that not only meets our practical needs but also resonates with our hearts and souls.

Navigating the Complex Mortgage Rate Landscape

“Okay, okay…talk about where I can find that 3.99% mortgage rate, Rach”! You can mostly find them these days being offered from New Home Builders and Seller Financed opportunities. But, DO YOUR HOMEWORK. There is no such thing as free money (hello 0% down scammers…yeah, I see you!)

I'll never forget Natalie, she was so excited to find her dream home that she almost forgot to breathe (and in the process forgot to do her due diligence on the loan process). I mean, who can blame her? She worked so hard to finally buy her first house after 14 years of cleaning other people’s houses.

As her Realtor, I tried to guide her through the loan process and encouraged her to interview several lenders to find the right fit, but Sarah got seduced by the "fast and easy" loan. And, well, we all know how that usually turns out. She ended up with a lender who promised her the moon and delivered a loan with so many hidden fees that it made me want to go sit down in a corner and rock myself back and forth to calm the moral rage that came over me like a dang hot flash in August.

As she struggled to make the payments she blamed herself. It is absolutely not her fault. She fell prey to predatory lending that so many fall victim to.

In hindsight, I wish I could have done more to help Natalie explore alternative options, like a bridge loan. That way, she could have had the funds she needed to cover her down payment and some mortgage payments while she sold her current home. The lesson here is: always read the fine print, and never trust a lender who promises you the world. (Unless they're a unicorn of course. In which case, I want their number so I can make sure that it is not a scammer presenting themselves as one..god I hate that!)

As a your REALtor, my goal is to educate and advocate for my clients throughout the home buying process. And if that means busting a few Unicorn Mortgage Lenders so be it. (Natalie if you're reading this, go to the mirror right now and tell yourself again that this was not your fault!)

Putting Affordability into Focus

The soaring prices and reality of affordability in the housing market today is without doubt overwhelming, making homeownership for way too many seem like a an impossible achievement. However, with the right strategies and mindset, it is possible to navigate this challenging landscape! By saving smart, cooking at home, being patient, and doing your due diligence, you can increase your chances of achieving your goal of homeownership.

And one more thing, it's okay to acknowledge the emotional weight of purchasing real estate and approach the process with patience, sensitivity, and understanding for yourself. As your REALtor, my purpose is to educate and advocate for my clients, and if we need to go sit down in a corner and rock ourselves back and forth, then by god we are going to do that!

🌟 Ready to take the next step toward your dream home? Contact me today for personalized advice and strategies to navigate the housing market with confidence! 🌟

Truth About Owning Land: What They Don’t Tell you

“Buy Land, they’re not making it anymore.” - Mark Twain

Hi y’all! Lately, my phone has been buzzing off the hook lately with frustrated homebuyers eager to explore the world of undeveloped acreage here in Texas. With the housing market feeling tighter than a pair of skinny jeans at Thanksgiving, it’s no wonder folks are looking for more space to call their own to build their own multi-generational homesteads. But before you trade your city views for a sprawling plot of land, let’s chat about the not-so-glamorous truths of land ownership.

Usability Over Size: The Real Deal

First things first—bigger isn’t always better! Picture this: you find a fantastic six-acre plot, but four of those acres are caliche rock shelves and steep! You’re left with a measly two acres to actually build on and use! Instead of splurging on that massive plot, it might make more sense to grab a cozy three-acre slice where more of your land is functional. Your wallet (and your sanity) will thank you!

Key Considerations:

• Usable Land: Always check how much of that land is actually usable for your plans—be it building a castle, farming, or your own tiny community for three generations of the familia that seem to always be at your house!

• Cost vs. Benefit: Just because it’s big doesn’t mean it’s worth it. Make sure you’re not paying for land that’s mostly an unbuildable quarry!

The Hidden Costs of Large Land Parcels

Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room—owning a big chunk of land can come with some hefty surprises. As you get older, traversing a vast area could feel like a marathon, turning you into a reluctant off-road vehicle owner. (Hello, ATV purchase—$10,000, anyone?)

Maintenance Madness:

Taking care of a larger plot can be labor-intensive and pricey. Trust me, mowing three acres will cost you more in labor and gas! It adds up quicker than you can say “landscaping quicksand!” Acreage in Central Texas comes with a lot of Cedar that you will want to manage to keep your place from being a tinder box and succumbing to wildfire.

The Tax Trap:

Don’t forget about taxes! As a landowner, you’re responsible for local taxes that help fund schools and road maintenance, even if your only benefit is a smooth drive to the nearest grocery store. Make sure to do your homework on tax rates, or you might find yourself in a pickle!

Special Utility Districts (SUDs and MUDs) :

In Texas, Special Utility Districts (SUDs) and Municipal Utility Districts (MUDs) are like friendly neighborhood helpers created to bring important services—think water, wastewater, and drainage—to areas that might not get them from regular towns. These districts can pop up thanks to local folks or developers who want to make their growing communities better!

SUDs have the power to change the prices for their services, but they can’t just spring surprises on you. They usually have to give you a heads-up, which might include letting you know in advance and holding public meetings before making any big changes. So, you can expect some transparency and a chance to voice your thoughts!

If you're curious or have questions about how a specific SUD is handling its rates, it’s a good idea to check their rules or reach out to them directly for the scoop!

Building and Neighborly Relations

So, you’ve got your land—now what? Building on it can be trickier than you think, with delays and budget overruns lurking around every corner. Whether you’re a hands-on DIYer or hiring pros, be ready for some serious time and effort.

Neighborly Nuisances:

And let’s not forget about neighbors! Your experience can hinge on your relationships with those living nearby. Disputes can turn into legal headaches faster than you can say “property line.” Make sure to scope out the community dynamics before jumping in. A friendly wave can go a long way!

The Double-Edged Sword of Land Ownership

While owning land can be a thrilling adventure—offering stability and the freedom to create your own slice of paradise—it’s work. From hidden maintenance costs to the intricacies of building and giving neighborly vibes, it’s essential to approach land ownership with your eyes wide open.

By understanding both the shiny perks and the potential pitfalls, you can make informed decisions that align with your dreams. So, if you’re ready to embark on this journey, remember—knowledge is power! Equip yourself with the right info, seek expert advice (uh-ehm…that would be me;), and get ready to navigate the wild world of land ownership.

Ready to take the plunge? Let’s chat! Call me, and let’s find that perfect piece of Texas land for you. Just remember: owning land is a journey that can be as challenging as it is rewarding. The challenge is the fun, you can do hard things! 🌟