Is Property Tax Relief Coming To Texas Home Owners?!
If you feel like you’ve entered into a parallel universe starting off the year 2025, you are not alone. I have been absorbing as much as possible and tracking VERY closely not only our local housing market, but also the broader economy as a whole. I’m not going to lie…it has been freaking terrifying. Don’t be alarmed when the next time you see me I am wearing a neck brace for the emotional whiplash I am enduring just trying to keep up with Trump-landia and his kingdom come. I am holding on with just the faintest hope that I will be able to anticipate the coming patterns in market movement and the economy as a whole. The answer to the question I get literally every day now, “What is going to happen in the single family housing market this year and when will be a good time to buy again?”, is…I don’t know. And nobody else does either. All of the old methods we Realtors have relied on to predict the housing market in fairly normal housing markets of the past have been thrown out the window. The truth is, nobody knows right now when we will see some overall relief in the housing market, or when it will be a good time to make the biggest purchase of your life again. Interest rate predictability alone is no longer the name of the game.
We are all looking for patterns of prediction that quite frankly just aren’t to be to be found, so for now I’ll just give go over some current events for y’all to take in. There is so much political and economic upheaval, and it's all interconnected, especially when it comes to how it affects our wallets and the roof over our heads.
Trump's Whirlwind of Change
The Trump administration is making some major moves that are sending shockwaves through the country and he and is followers are only getting started. Here's a quick rundown from the past week:
Federal Agency Shake-Ups: President Trump and Elon Musk, acting as a "special government employee," are rapidly dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), sealing off its headquarters, and putting senior officials on leave. Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) has been granted broad authority to investigate the federal government. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has also warned over 1,100 employees that their jobs might be terminated.
Trade Wars: The administration has paused tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, but is going though with tariffs on China, which are projected to increase expenses for the average American household by more than $1,200 per year (the last time I checked, however the data on this is highly debated). The tariffs are causing enormous volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
Constitutional Clash: Many of these actions are being taken without Congressional approval, setting up a potential constitutional conflict.
This all adds up to a lot of uncertainty and public anger and discontent is growing, especially regarding housing affordability.
The Housing Market: A Shifting Landscape
Speaking of housing, let's take a quick look at what's happening in the market right now.
Seller Distress: Home seller motivation is shifting from "hopium" to distress. It seems many sellers are becoming increasingly motivated to sell their properties.
Rising Foreclosures: Foreclosure starts have increased dramatically, up 50.37% month-over-month and 29.59% year-over-year, which is a significant indicator of financial hardship among homeowners.
Inventory Increase: There is a non-seasonal increase in housing inventory suggesting more supply.
Qualified Buyers on the Sidelines: There are qualified buyers out there who have been saving and are waiting patiently.
Potential Oversupply: We might be heading towards an oversupply of housing, which would reverse the narrative of a housing shortage.
Price Declines: Home prices are showing signs of decline. Nationally prices are down 5.27% from their seasonal peak in June 2024. New home prices are down 7.23% from the October 2022 peak.
Construction Impacts: Threats of large-scale deportations have already impacted the construction industry due to labor shortages.
2025 Housing Market Forecast-ish
While no one has a crystal ball, it's likely that home sales will be a bit higher than in the past couple of years, but we're definitely not looking at a repeat of 2021 or 2022. Affordability is going nowhere quickly, y’all. My point is that the market is shifting into more of the same stagnation, and the distress is mounting for sellers.
Property Tax Relief Hopes in Texas: Governor Abbott's Plan
Amid the chaos out of Washington, Texas Governor Greg Abbott is trying to address the ongoing property tax issues in the state. Here’s what he’s proposing:
Using the State Budget Surplus: Governor Abbott plans to use at least $10 billion of the state’s budget surplus for property tax relief.
Speeding Up Tax Rate Compression: He aims to lower school district maintenance and operation (M&O) tax rates, which will provide relief to all property taxpayers.
Closing Loopholes: The Governor wants to eliminate loopholes that allow local taxing authorities to raise property taxes without voter approval, requiring a two-thirds voter approval for all tax increases.
Increasing Business Personal Property Tax Exemption: Governor Abbott proposes to increase the business personal property tax exemption to $100,000, which will support small businesses.
November Ballot for Local Issues: All local bond issues and tax rate elections would be required to be on the November ballot and approved by a two-thirds supermajority of voters.
Governor Abbott has passed significant property tax reforms since taking office in 2015. These reforms have included: tax rate compression, limitations on revenue increases for cities, counties, and special districts without voter approval (indeed, things happen ALL the time without voter approval), enhanced transparency for taxpayers, and increased the homestead exemption for Texas seniors.
It’s nice that Governor Abbot’s office recognizes that far too many Texans have not felt any relief. It is true that our city appraisal districts and the bank lender appraisers were given the keys to the kingdom. They were allowed to completely run amuck during the years that Covid changed all of our lives. Enabling those who had the cash to pay for entire subdivisions feeling even more aggressive in their overspecutlation, while at the very same time in one swipe of an appraisers pen, completely pushing out first time home buyers. Local taxing authorities hiked their property taxes seemingly without rhyme or reason from 2020 up until today with ZERO thought given to the longterm negative effects it would have on ALL of our Texas resident’s financial future.
It looks like Governor Abbot’s new plan seeks to address some of these issues. However, it is going to take an entire overhaul of the way we fundamentally think about how we build, buy, and sell houses going forward if we are to expect changes in any kind of meaningful and sustainable way for our children’s children. In another article, I will dive deeper into Governor Abbott’s “emergency item” on property tax relief because I think it is CRITICAL that we stay ahead of what our legislators decide is good for the entirety of our communities.
The start of 2025 is marked by significant political and economic changes that are impacting the housing market and property taxes in real time, my friends. In Texas, Governor Abbott is pushing for further property tax relief, while nationally, the Trump administration’s actions are creating a tremendous amount of uncertainty. It’s a complex situation, and it is all interconnected. WE are all interconnected.
Until next time, stay brave, stay informed, and shoot a smile to a stranger every now and then!
